Live news: TD says home prices to fall 10%, double previous forecast

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Today’s top headlines

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12:22 p.m.

TD doubles forecast for Canadian housing-price decline to 10%

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Canadian home prices are likely to fall twice as much as previously expected, according to economists at Toronto-Dominion Bank, as persistently high borrowing costs and an unexpected surge in listings puts more downward pressure on the market.

As recently as last month, TD’s team was predicting average home prices would decline five per cent through the first quarter of 2024, a call they first made in September. They’ve now changed the forecasted drop to 10 per cent, they said in a research note Wednesday.

The gloomier forecast comes as the highest interest rates in decades have cleared many buyers from Canada’s housing market, while putting more pressure on mortgage holders. The result has been an increase in the number of homes up for sale since the middle of the year, and a slide in benchmark home prices since September.

Persistently high inflation has caused TD to hike its forecast for bond yields. As that translates into still-higher fixed mortgage rates, more prospective buyers could be squeezed out. Those who remain, will have more negotiating power because of the surge in new listings.

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In Ontario, the country’s most populous province, for instance, TD found one measure of supply and demand, the sales-to-new listings ratio, had fallen to 39 per cent in October from 63 per cent in May, indicating more pressure on prices could come.

The economists said, however, that even the greater-than-expected price decline would still leave Canada’s average home prices 15 per cent higher than pre-pandemic levels. And with the TD economists — and the broader market — forecasting the Bank of Canada will begin cutting interest rates by the middle of next year, they say that should prevent steeper declines.

Bloomberg

Noon

Bank of Canada’s Macklem says interest rate hikes may be over

Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem said policymakers may have done enough to tame inflation, reinforcing market and economist expectations that interest rates have peaked.

In his first speech since leaving borrowing costs unchanged in October, Macklem said the economy is expected to remain weak for the next few quarters, which means “more downward pressure on inflation is in the pipeline.”

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“This tightening of monetary policy is working, and interest rates may now be restrictive enough to get us back to price stability,” he said, reiterating the central bank is prepared to raise rates again “if high inflation persists.”

Macklem’s remarks came a day after the latest data showed Canada’s consumer price index rose 3.1 per cent in October, the slowest pace since June. A key metric for underlying pressures that policymakers are tracking also slowed to below three per cent.

His comments suggest the Bank of Canada has more confidence inflation will continue to decelerate in the coming months as the economy slows, allowing policymakers to keep rates steady at five per cent. Officials next set rates in two weeks, and markets and economists expect the central bank will start easing by mid-2024.

“The economy is approaching balance,” Macklem said, according to the prepared text of a speech Nov. 22 in Saint John, New Brunswick.

Bloomberg

Read the full story.

11:45 a.m.

Midday markets: TSX edges higher despite lower oil prices, U.S. stock markets also up

Canada’s main stock index edged higher in late-morning trading as gains led by technology and utility stocks were partially offset by losses in the energy sector as the price of oil moved lower.

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The S&P/TSX composite index was up 19.37 points at 20,129.34.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 135.01 points at 35,223.30. The S&P 500 index was up 15.84 points at 4,554.03, while the Nasdaq composite was up 66.90 points at 14,266.88.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.76 cents U.S. compared with 73.00 cents U.S. on Tuesday.

The January crude oil contract was down US$3.33 at US$74.44 per barrel and the January natural gas contract was down three cents at US$2.97 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was down US$5.40 at US$1,996.20 an ounce and the December copper contract was down seven cents at US$3.74 a pound.

The Canadian Press

10:14 a.m.

Markets open: U.S. stocks rise as TSX slumps

Stocks opened higher on Wall Street, led by big gains in travel-related companies as energy prices drop.

Cruise companies and airlines were among the biggest gainers in the early going Wednesday. The market is on track to post a modest gain in this holiday-shortened week ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States on Thursday.

The S&P 500 was up 0.24 per cent at 4,549.08. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.28 per cent at 35,185.69 while the Nasdaq composite rose 0.19 per cent to 14,231.70.

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In Toronto, the energy heavy S&P/TSX composite index was down 0.06 per cent at 20,097.39.

Crude oil prices sank more than four per cent after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said it would postpone its latest conference to next week. Treasury prices were relatively steady.

The Associated Press

7:30 a.m.

India restores online visas services for Canadian nationals

India has restored online visa services to Canadian nationals in a sign that relations are improving after the two countries sparred over the killing of a Sikh separatist leader.

Canadian nationals can now apply for online visas, according to senior government officials in India, who asked not to be named discussing a sensitive subject. The online visas are issued for short visits to India and include tourist and business-related trips.

The resumption of visa services comes on a day when Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is expected to address a virtual meeting of the G-20 grouping that India chairs.

Relations between Ottawa and New Delhi plunged after Prime Minister Trudeau alleged that India was responsible for the murder of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Sikh separatist leader in Canada. Nijjar is wanted in India for terrorism-related offenses and was shot dead outside a Sikh temple in suburban Vancouver on June 18.

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Trudeau’s accusation sparked outrage from the Indian government, which has denied involvement in Nijjar’s death. Officials forced the Canada to reduce its diplomatic staff in New Delhi and also suspended visa services for Canadians.

Sudhi Ranjan Sen and Santosh Kumar, Bloomberg

Read more: Business between Canada and India continues despite tensions, says envoy

Stock markets before the opening bell

Stocks are rising this morning as traders await a slew of U.S. economic data before markets pause for holidays in America and Japan.

Futures on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 edged higher as Wall Street heads for one of the best November rallies on record.

News of a temporary halt in fighting between Israel and Hamas failed to ignite risk-on sentiment, with investors looking to data on U.S. jobless claims, durable- and capital-goods orders and consumer sentiment later today for clues on the direction of monetary policy.

Bloomberg

What to watch today

Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem speaks in St. John, New Brunswick at 11:30 a.m.

In the United States, data will be released on jobless claims, durable goods order, along with the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index

Need a refresher on yesterday’s top headlines? Get caught up here.

Additional reporting by The Canadian Press, Associated Press and Bloomberg

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