Ford’s shares have moved about 7% or 8%, up or down, on average after the past four quarterly reports.
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Ford Motor reports first-quarter earnings after the close of trading Wednesday. Numbers better be good.
Wall Street is looking for Ford (ticker: F) to report earnings per share of 37 cents from $34.5 billion in sales. A year ago, the auto maker reported EPS of 89 cents from $36.2 billion in sales.
First-quarter earnings reports from Tesla (TSLA) and General Motors (GM) have raised the bar for Ford, with both beating expectations, despite supply chain hurdles and rising costs.
Tesla reported earnings per share of $3.22. Wall Street was looking for closer to $2.30 a share. GM reported a profit of $2.09 a share. Analysts were projecting $1.65 a share.
Guidance always matters as much as earnings. Ford currently expects 2022 operating profit to fall between $11.5 billion and $12.5 billion and free cash flow of about $6 billion.
Analysts are projecting about $11.2 billion in operating income and $4 billion in free cash flow, according to FactSet. Analysts aren’t typically that far below management guidance. GM, for instance, is projecting 2022 operating profit to fall between $13 billion and $15 billion. Wall Street is currently projecting GM operating profit to come in at $13.8 billion.
Lower expectations might help Ford’s shares, which should have a big move on Thursday, the day after the earnings report. Options markets imply the stock will move about 9%, up or down, following earnings. Shares have moved about 7% or 8%, up or down, on average after the past four quarterly reports.
Shareholders could use an up-day. Ford stock was up 0.5% Wednesday, ahead of the report, but is down about 29% year to date. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average are down about 12% and 9%, respectively.
Ford management will host a conference call at 5 p.m. Eastern time to discuss the results. Analysts and investors will be eager to hear about production rates for the balance of the year given the industry’s supply chain problems.
A shortage of semiconductors has constrained global auto production for more than a year. Ford delivered about 432,000 vehicles in the U.S. during the first quarter of 2022. A year ago, in the first quarter of 2021, that number was about 531,000.
Write to Al Root at [email protected]
