(Bloomberg) — A post-Thanksgiving selloff spread across global markets from stocks to commodities, and haven assets rallied, amid fears a new coronavirus variant identified in South Africa could spark fresh outbreaks and scuttle a fragile economic recovery.
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All eyes were on the opening bell in the U.S. markets, set to return from the holiday for a shortened trading session. Futures signaled the rout that started in Asia and spread to Europe won’t spare New York equities. A surge in Treasuries suggested traders were cutting bets on monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve. The dollar missed a beat as a haven currency as the yen dominated that role.
“Every trader in New York will be rushing to the office now,” said Frederik Hildner, a money manager at Salm-Salm & Partner.
Contracts on the S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average slumped the most since September. Russell 2000 contracts sank as much as 5.4%. Technology shares may also be caught in the net too as Nasdaq 100 futures fell 1.2%.
The World Health Organization and scientists in South Africa were said to be working “at lightening speed” to ascertain how quickly the B.1.1.529 variant can spread and whether it’s resistant to vaccines. The new threat adds to the wall of worry investors are already contending with in the form of elevated inflation, monetary tightening and slowing growth.
Global travel stocks were in particular focus after the European Union, U.K., Israel, and Singapore placed emergency curbs on passengers from South Africa and the surrounding region. British Airways parent IAG SA tumbled as much as 21% in London. Carnival Corp. and Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. lost 9% each in New York premarket session. Stay-at-home stocks such as Zoom Video Communications Inc. jumped in the early trading.
Europe’s equity benchmark headed for the biggest drop this year. Ten-year Treasury yields shed 11 basis points while the Japanese yen jumped the most since investors’ March 2020 rush for safety. Crude oil to emerging markets completed this picture of mayhem.
“Investors are worried about the growing possibility of a new series of lockdowns, which could curb the recovery,” Carlo Alberto De Casa, an external market analyst for Kinesis Money, wrote in emailed comments. “Central banks could be forced to review their strategies and exit plans from quantitative easing if the scenario is worsening again.”
Traders rushed to cut back their bets on rate hikes. Money markets now price less than a 10-basis-point hike by the Bank of England next month, compared with 35 basis points projected less than a month ago. They expect seven basis points of tightening by the European Central Bank by December 2022 as against nine basis points seen Thursday.
The yen and Swiss franc found bids from safety-conscious traders, while the dollar languished. A gain for the euro, the biggest component of the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, also curbed the greenback.
MSCI Inc.’s Asia-Pacific equity gauge slid to the lowest since early October, with Japan and Hong Kong underperforming.
Some of the worst-hit assets were in emerging markets. The currency of South Africa, where the virus strain was identified, sank 2.1% and the Mexican peso fell by a similar degree. The MSCI EM Currency Index fell to a six-week low.
Crude oil futures in New York dropped as much as 7.4% to trade below $73 per barrel. Copper, nickel and aluminum each declined at least 2.9% in London trading.
For more market analysis, read our MLIV blog.
Here are some key events this week:
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
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The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 2.4% as of 10:24 a.m. London time
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Futures on the S&P 500 fell 1.7%
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Futures on the Nasdaq 100 fell 1.1%
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Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.1%
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The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 1.8%
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The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 2.1%
Currencies
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The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
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The euro rose 0.5% to $1.1268
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The Japanese yen rose 1.1% to 114.07 per dollar
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The offshore yuan was little changed at 6.3919 per dollar
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The British pound was little changed at $1.3318
Bonds
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The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined 11 basis points to 1.53%
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Germany’s 10-year yield declined five basis points to -0.30%
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Britain’s 10-year yield declined 11 basis points to 0.86%
Commodities
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Brent crude fell 5.2% to $77.96 a barrel
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Spot gold rose 1.2% to $1,809.80 an ounce
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