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Big Lots could see its biggest post-earnings move in years. How you can trade it

Big Lots could see a big move after earnings this week.

The department store operator’s implied volatility — how far up or down its stock could swing after its earnings report on Friday — is higher than it has been in years, Piper Sandler’s Craig Johnson told CNBC last week.

Overall, the stock “has a pretty constructive setup heading into the earnings print,” the firm’s senior technical research analyst said Friday on CNBC’s “Trading Nation.”

“You had a little bit of a bullish flag that’s formed,” Johnson said, referencing Big Lots’ stock chart. “The $64 level, which it’s coming back up to retest, is a pretty big overhead resistance level, and any sort of break above that would be a nice indication of another leg higher starting to unfold.”

Big Lots shares ended trading up 1.5% on Friday at $63.54.

“I’d also point out that the relative strength trend is improving versus the S&P 500,” Johnson said. “In the options setup, … it looks like you’ve got about 14% implied move coming up to this print, which is a little bit bigger than what we’ve seen over the last 10 years. … Playing that long into the print I think makes a lot of sense.”

A 14% move higher would put Big Lots shares at around $72.50. A 14% decline would leave the stock at roughly $54.60 a share.

Target is also one to watch ahead of its earnings report on Tuesday, said Gina Sanchez, founder and CEO of Chantico Global and chief market strategist at Lido Advisors.

“The Lido Recovery Portfolio has established a position in Target,” she said in the same “Trading Nation” interview. “If you look at Target’s performance, they have just crushed it during the pandemic. They have had very strong sales, but they’ve also upped their e-commerce game.”

If Target’s e-commerce metrics look anything like last quarter’s, in which they rose 102%, it could help the stock, Sanchez said.

“It’s a massive part of their story, and the outlook for Target is getting better, and yet their valuations are actually … more affordable than other comparables [and] they have bigger margins,” she said. “So, on the whole, we think that Target is something to watch.”

Disclosure: Piper Sandler is a registered market maker for Target. Lido Advisors owns shares of Target.


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