(Bloomberg) —
What started as a political spat between Beijing and Canberra has become a one-sided trade war that threatens serious disruption for an expanding number of Australian exporters.
China won’t allow imports of a swathe of Australian commodities and foodstuffs from as early as this week, according to people familiar with the matter. The curbs are a major escalation in Beijing’s pressure campaign following a two-year stand-off over issues from technology to the origins of coronavirus.
China’s blacklist — delivered verbally to commodities traders — includes coal, barley, copper, sugar, timber, wine and lobster. It doesn’t cover materials, like iron ore or natural gas, where import curbs could unduly damage China’s own economy.
“The Chinese warned earlier this year that many of the goods that Australia exports were replaceable,” Richard McGregor, senior fellow at Sydney-based think tank Lowy Institute said by phone. “Now they’re going about replacing them. China seems determined to punish Australia and make it an example to other countries.”
That means pain for global commodities groups hauling coal from huge mines in eastern Australia, or lobster farmers rearing the creatures off the country’s west coast. Winemakers, who’ve enjoyed a booming demand from China’s growing middle-class, may suffer.
Here’s a look at some of the trade routes about to get rattled.
Coal Country
The black stuff used to generate energy or make steel is the chunkiest of China’s targets. Coal accounted for about 9% of all Australia’s earnings from exports to China last year, far behind the biggest contributor iron ore and a few notches below natural gas.
Iron ore is seen as more immune from trade actions because China’s sprawling steel sector needs vast quantities of Australia’s high-quality ore. The remaining products now in China’s crosshairs all fall in the “other” category. Together they might account for about 5% of export revenues if wheat is included, according to Bloomberg analysis of Australian government data.
Wining and Dining
Beijing doesn’t seem concerned about its richer population’s demand for Australian lobster or fine wines. For premium wines, China is Australia’s biggest buyer, spending almost A$1.2 billion ($830 million) in the year through September, according to trade body Wine Australia. That’s about two and a half times bigger than its exports to the U.S.
Read more: Chinese Quaff Premium Australian Wine as Trade Tensions Simmer
The industry has been bracing for trouble in its top market since China announced two trade investigations into Australian wine earlier this year. Shares of one Australian producer, Treasury Wine Estates Ltd., dropped as much as 3% on Tuesday, the most since September.
Copper Conundrum
The copper market spotlights the trade mismatch between the two countries. About 55% of Australia’s mined copper exports headed for the Asian nation last year. But Australia made up barely 5% of China’s needs, meaning it shouldn’t be too much of a problem for its smelters to source alternatives.
One Australian copper producer Sandfire Resources Ltd. fell as much as 9%, although the company said it was confident of finding alternative customers if needed. “The ore from Australia might still get shipped to China after blending or in refined form,” Eric Liu, head of trading and research at AKS Resources Ltd. said from Shanghai.
Wooden Result
Though Beijing will halt sugar and wood imports, they aren’t big export earners for Australia in trade with China. The Asian nation banned timber imports from the state of Queensland after finding pests during checks, the customs administration said last week.
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