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The reopening trade is ‘fizzling,’ market analyst says as tech, cyclical ETFs sell off

The reopening trade is getting riskier.

That’s what Dave Nadig, chief investment officer and director of research at ETF Trends and ETF Database, told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” on Monday as cyclically oriented stocks and some popular technology plays led the broad market lower on heavy selling volume.

Exchange-traded funds tracking cyclical stocks, or equities that tend to mirror the overall economy’s successes and struggles, were starved for gains in Monday’s trading session. The PHLX Oil Service Fund, the SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME), the U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS) and the SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE) lost 5% to 7% in market value.

“The reopening is fizzling,” Nadig said in response to the action. “We’re starting to bring some reality back to some of these names that may have run too long.”

Worse yet for investors, the weakness may need more time to play out, he said.

“We’ve got a long way to go before we can really get a rally until we can find a bottom in some of these names that ran so hard,” Nadig said.

Without two of the market’s most prominent stock groups — tech and the banks — leading the slide, reigniting the rally will prove difficult, said Nick Colas, the co-founder of DataTrek Research.

“Tech and banks are 37% of the S&P 500 and the big five tech names are 22% on their own,” he said in the same “ETF Edge” interview, referring to Microsoft, Amazon, Apple, Alphabet and Facebook.

As smaller subgroups in tech including the robotics, semiconductor, lithium and even momentum stocks lose steam, Colas said, it could be a difficult road to recovery.

Between “that and correlations rising during periods of volatility, it’s very hard to hold the market up even if you’ve got a couple of small groups working,” he said.

U.S. stock futures were mixed Tuesday following four straight days of losses for the S&P.


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