On Monday, the drug maker presented encouraging new data from the REDUCE-IT study. After taking 4g a day of Vascepa, Amarin’s high triglycerides treatment, diabetes patients experienced a 23% drop in both first and total primary composite major adverse cardiovascular events. Chen thinks this data underscores Vascepa’s “continuing commercial success and future potential.”
“We believe the news is important because it is the first time that data specific to the diabetes population has been presented. Included for example was that in the diabetic patients treated in REDUCE-IT more than half of such patients were already on two or more drugs for diabetes and over 90% were on at least one such medicine. This emphasized that the Vascepa results were incremental to the lowering of A1C and other impacts of such medicines,” the analyst said.
Sales of Vascepa, Amarin’s only product, have been hit hard by the coronavirus. Physician practice closures affected Amarin’s marketing and sales initiative following the FDA’s approval to expand Vascepa’s label last December. Some states have seen a gradual opening, allowing for limited access, but many still do not allow for physical access.
“Nonetheless, we are starting to see patients return to their doctors for ordinary care, which is a great step forward. We anticipate the growth in Vascepa prescription number to gain momentum again once lockdowns ease in 2H20,” Chen commented.
Chen is also confident another serious overhang can be removed. Amarin is currently embroiled in a court case against two generic companies seeking to make their own versions of Vascepa. Amarin lost the case but has since appealed. Chen believes Amarin has a “good probability of winning,” ascribing a 50% chance of success, far higher than the 15-20% overall appeal success rate.
click here)” data-reactid=”18″>All in all, Chen rates AMRN an Overweight (i.e. Buy) along with a $35 price target. The implication for investors? Massive upside potential of 420% from current levels. (To watch Chen’s track record, click here)
See Amarin price targets and analyst ratings on TipRanks)” data-reactid=”19″>The Street also remains bullish on Amarin, though not quite to the same extent as Chen. The analyst consensus rates Amarin a Moderate Buy based on 7 Buy ratings and 5 Holds. There is still plenty of upside according to the analysts, as the $17.56 average price target implies possible gains amounting to 155%. (See Amarin price targets and analyst ratings on TipRanks)
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